Brexit: the questions to ask.

Notwithstanding what happens elsewhere, Robin Lustig in The Guardian has provided a list of vulnerable Conservative seats where tactical voting by Remainers (AND, I FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD, ACTIVE CAMPAIGNING BY REMAINERS!) could overturn their majority. (I've copied Lustig's list at the end of this post.)

I'm no psephologist nor the brightest when it comes to crunching on stuff like this. (I'd like to be able to afford staff to do it for me but these days I can't even find anyone to iron my copy of Socialist Worker each morning.) Anyway, it seems to me that in these seats a coordinated Remain tactical vote may work if this happens:

In Con/LD marginals: Remainers vote Lib Dem and work at Tory Remainers and “soft” Leavers to do the same on this occasion.
In Con/Lab marginals: Remainers vote Labour and work on the others as above.

Looking beyond Lustig's list, there are lots of seats which are marginal on paper but where the combined Tory/UKIP vote is considerably higher than the combined Labour, LibDem, Green and (in Wales) Plaid Cymru vote. This makes any breakthrough unlikely unless all Remainers ...
(1) vote for the next biggest party (not UKIP of course!);
(2) work away at Tory Remainers who, at least on this occasion, would be prepared to vote in the same way;
(3) work away at Tory Leavers who don’t want a ‘hard’ Brexit and will be prepared to do the same as (2);
(4) hope (or pray, as is your wont) that the UKIP turnout is either low or is both high and augmented by Tories (unlikely), splitting the Quitter vote and letting another party through - rather than, as may sadly happen, the UKIP rats (lemmings?) jumping ship and voting Tory.

What arguments should be used by Remainers? Here are some that occur to me. They aren't exhaustive so please add to them or (constructively) criticise them.

By all means correct lies and misconceptions but don’t bang on about how wonderful the EU is: that will just harden Leavers’ arteries even further. This is not about re-fighting the Referendum and their scepticism won't go away. Rather, play the sovereignty card - in two ways. The failure to do this (even now) has been a gaping flaw in the Referendum and subsequent campaigns:

1. Ask them how much sovereignty is ACTUALLY yielded to the EU, in what areas, and how this concretely affects their lives and the country’s well-being. Really probe them on this.

2. Focus on areas where the UK has never lost its sovereignty and get them to say how well we have exercised it compared to similarly developed EU nations (hint: very badly – see the list of areas on which to focus in my letter to the New European last week; you may well have others in mind).

Be blunt: the political class in Parliament went missing at the most crucial point in our modern history so it’s now up to us. We are asking Tory Remainers, Tory “soft” Leavers and waverers of all stripes to lend a tactical vote for an express purpose. This purpose is NOT somehow to allow Corbyn to form a government: that just won't happen! It is to stop May's cynical dash for the line by giving Parliament enough numerical leverage either to challenge the "hard" Brexit she has set out (for which most Leave voters didn’t vote and wouldn't have had they known) or to insist on a second referendum when the terms of Brexit are known. Anything else is a blank cheque both for a woman who has plainly shown that she can't be trusted and for what she once called the "nasty" tendency - a minority - within the Conservative Party. It's the patriot's choice. (Use the word!)

If necessary, be prepared to talk about immigration, however unpalatable this may be. Many won't agree with me, but I do think that the EU is being excessively utopian in believing that completely open borders can function smoothly in a continent with such varied economies at this time. I simply believe that this is an insufficient reason to leave, that we are not alone with the pressures and that we should argue the case with others inside the EU rather than run away. (I'm no economist and if you have a good case why I'm wrong, please let me know what it is - politely!)

And don't forget Ireland. WE ALWAYS FORGET IRELAND!

Here is Lustig’s list. I’ve omitted seats where UKIP did well (for example, Thurrock - Con 16,692, Lab 16,156, UKIP 15,718, LD 644 - looks a bit of a hopeless case to me).

Conservatives <5,000 ahead of LibDems (most vulnerable at top):
1. Eastbourne (C 20,934, LD 20,201, UKIP 6,139, Lab 4,143; Green 1,351)
2. Lewes (C 19,206, LD 18,123, UKIP 5,427, Lab 5,000; Green 2,784)
3. Thornbury & Yate (C 19,924, LD 18,428, UKIP 5,126, Lab 3,775; Green 1,350)
4. Twickenham (C 25,580, LD 23,563, Lab 7,129, UKIP 3,069, Green 2,463) (Vince Cable’s old seat)
5. Kingston & Surbiton (C 23,249, LD 20,415, Lab 8,574, UKIP 4,321, Green 2,322)
6. St Ives (C 18,491, LD 16,022, UKIP 5,720, Lab 4,510, Green 3,051)
7. Torbay (C 19,521, LD 16,265, UKIP 6,540 , Lab 4,166, Green 1,557)
8. Sutton & Cheam (C 20,732, LD 16,811, Lab 5,546, UKIP 5,341, Green 1,051)
9. Bath (C 17,833, LD 14,000, Lab 6,216, Green 5,634, UKIP 2,922)

Conservatives <1,000 ahead of Labour (most vulnerable at top)
Gower (C 15,862, Lab 15,835, UKIP 4,733, Plaid 3,051, LD 1,552, Green 1,161)
1. Derby North (C 16,402, Lab 16,361, UKIP 6,532, LD 3,832, Green 1,118)
2. Croydon Central (C 16,402, Lab 16,361, UKIP 6,532, LD 3,832, Green 1,118)
3. Vale of Clwyd (C 13,760, Lab 13,523, UKIP 4,577, Plaid 2,486 LD 915)
4. Bury North (C 18,970, Lab 18,592, UKIP 5,595, Green 1,141, LD 932)
5. Morley & Outwood (C 18,776, Lab 18,354, UKIP 7,951, LD 1,426, Green 1,264)
6. Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (C 18,120, Lab 17,597, UKIP 6,731, Green 3,401, LD 2,008)
7. Brighton Kemptown (C 18,428, Lab 17,738, UKIP 4,446, Green 3,187, LD 1,365)
8. Weaver Vale (C 20,227, Lab 19,421, UKIP 4,547, LD 1,395, Green 1,183)